Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Who Will Be The First To Go Home in Season 12?

I have no idea.

Here is the distribution of the judges' scores:


Ralph Macchio and Karina Smirnoff 10.6%
Hines Ward and Kym Johnson 10.4%
Kirstie Alley and Maksim Chmerkovskiy 10.2%
Romeo and Chelsie Hightower 9.9%
Chris Jericho and Cheryl Burke 9.9%
Chelsea Kane and Mark Ballas 9.2%
Kendra Wilkinson and Louis Van Amstel 8.7%
Petra Nemcova and Dmitry Chaplin 8.5%
Sugar Ray Leonard and Anna Trebunskaya 8.0%
Wendy Williams and Tony Dovolani 7.3%
Mike Catherwood and Lacey Schwimmer 7.1%


These are combined with the voters' scores to give the overall rank and then the lowest is sent packing.

I guess the bottom five are all pretty close with Mike needing only 0.2 percentage points more of the viewers' vote than Wendy to be safe as an example.

The popular view is that it's gong to be Mike or Wendy but people vote on who's the best, not who will go home, which is a lot harder to get at.

Dial Idol has a system where they measure busy tones on the phone but the sample sizes aren't big enough to give a clear view.

I would have to go with Mike simply because he doesn't come with a broad fan base.  We shall see tonight!

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